February 5, 2026

• Bitcoin crashed below $67,000 as Stifel warned of a potential drop to $38,000 NewsBTC — the analysts drew a trendline through the lows of every major crash since 2010
• On February 5, 2026, the crypto market continued its steep decline — bitcoin plunged below $70,000, while Ethereum is trading near $2,000 Incrypted
• The Fear and Greed Index points to “extreme fear” Incrypted — specifically at 12 points
• Stifel analysts predict bitcoin could fall to about $38,000, using a trend line drawn through the lows of major crashes since 2010 CoinDesk
• Bitcoin used to rise with more global cash and weaker dollars, but since 2025 the relationship has reversed

Just four days ago, we published our analysis of Grant Cardone’s desperate pivot to Bitcoin as a liquidity bridge for his debt-laden real estate empire. We wrote that Cardone’s crypto play was not financial innovation — it was the move of a highly leveraged syndicator whose traditional investor pipeline had collapsed and whose balloon payments were arriving on schedule.

Today, the crypto market is in freefall — and Grant Cardone’s big bet is imploding in real time.

The Crash

Bitcoin plunged below $70,000 on Thursday, February 5, 2026, hitting its lowest level since November 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency is now down over 40% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has collapsed to 12 — “extreme fear” territory. More than $775 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in a single day.

Investment bank Stifel Financial issued a stark warning: Bitcoin could crash all the way to $38,000. Analysts at the 136-year-old firm drew a line through the lows of every major Bitcoin crash since 2010 — the 93% decline in 2011, the 84% decline in 2015, the 83% decline in 2018, and the 76% decline in 2022 — and that trendline points to $38,000 as the potential nadir for this cycle.

As Stifel’s team led by Barry B. Bannister put it: Bitcoin used to rise when the dollar fell and global M2 money supply rose. Since 2025, that relationship has reversed. Bitcoin is now falling with the dollar. The fixed supply cap that was supposed to make Bitcoin “age backward” versus fiat is no longer working as advertised.

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan declared this week that what we’re seeing is not a correction — it’s a “full-blown crypto winter.”

Cardone’s Exposure

In December 2024, Cardone Capital launched what it called “Bitcoin-Real Estate Hybrid Funds.” As we documented in our February 1 article:

• The 10X Boca Raton Bitcoin Fund combines $100 million in Bitcoin with 366 apartment units purchased out of a Blackstone-related bankruptcy for $230 million.
• The 10X Space Coast Bitcoin Fund pairs 300 apartment units in Melbourne, Florida with $15 million in Bitcoin.
• The 10X Miami River Fund combines 346 apartments with $300 million in assets.

Cardone announced in late 2024 that his funds added $72 million in Bitcoin in October and November alone. He stated a target of 4,000 BTC, which would make Cardone Capital one of the largest non-mining corporate Bitcoin holders.

Cardone increased his Bitcoin holdings to 2,814 coins on which he spent $279 million of investor money. 

Cardone told Fox that he planned to take his Bitcoin-Multifamily portfolio public later this year. A Cardone IPO would be interesting to watch; the actual language in the IPO would be far more interesting to read.

We wrote at the time:“In our opinion, [Cardone’s] Bitcoin is not a hedge. It is a liquidity bridge.”

But Cardone’s BTC liquidity bridge only works if the asset remains stable or increases.

Bitcoin has lost 40% of its value since October. Cardone is now sitting on a catastrophic $101 million in Bitcoin losses. 

Grant Cardone has been aggressively accumulating Bitcoin for his real estate-crypto hybrid funds, purchasing nearly 500 BTC at around $108,000, another 888 BTC at roughly $94,000, and 185 BTC at $82,500 per coin. With Bitcoin plunging below $67,000 today — down sharply from its all-time high of $126,000 — those purchases are deep underwater.

Assuming a blended average entry price across his known buys, Cardone Capital is likely sitting on ~$101 million in losses on Bitcoin. As Grant Cardone repays himself when he sells property he purchased with his own money to his captive entity Cardone Capital, these Bitcoin losses are now investor losses. 

Despite the drawdown, Cardone has shown no signs of backing off. He recently emblazoned the Bitcoin logo on his $70 million private jet, declaring “I’m not bullish on Real Estate & BTC, I’m committed.” His goal remains ambitious: 10,000 BTC paired with 15,000 apartment units across 10 funds he intends to take public…  and right now, the market is testing his resolve.

Yahoo Finance December 2, 2025:  

Cardone has consistently purchased Bitcoin to support his new funds over the past year. These purchases have not stopped with the asset’s recent nearly 40% crash from its price record of $126,000 to as low as $80,600, in perhaps another sign of his conviction.

If anything, Cardone appears to have welcomed the opportunity to purchase the asset for cheap with several limit orders. Last month, he took advantage of the dip to add nearly 500 BTC, worth about $50 million, to Cardone Capital‘s holdings. Earlier this month, he added nearly 900 BTC, valued at about $84 million. And just last week, he said Cardone Capital added 185 BTC for about $15 million at $82,500 per coin.

On December 26, 2024, Bitcoin closed at approximately $95,714. BingX. Cardone kept buying Bitcoin and chased the price up and down using investor money. The blue diamonds show Cardone’s Bitcoin purchases:

The next chart shows Cardone’s reported Bitcoin purchases and his $101 million in losses on Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin does not care about Cardone’s OT certainty. Bitcoin does not respond to his “10X” mantras. Bitcoin is crashing because of macroeconomic forces — Federal Reserve hawkishness, tightening liquidity, institutional outflows, and the reversal of the relationship between Bitcoin and the dollar that Stifel documented.

February 5, 2026:

If Scientologist Grant Cardone could actually control MEST, he would have postulated Bitcoin to $200,000 by now. Instead, his investors are watching their holdings evaporate while Cardone’s fees continue to accrue.

As we have written before: Scientology’s OT levels do not work. They do not give practitioners supernatural powers. They do not allow anyone to predict or control financial markets. They are an elaborate, expensive fraud. Grant Cardone’s Bitcoin implosion is just the latest proof.

Likewise, twin brother and fellow OT8 Gary Cardone, a self-proclaimed Crypto Grand Master and owner of Node 40, has seen his OT predictions shatter like the ticket that exploded. From a Binance article of July 18,2025:

Investment veteran Gary Cardone just stunned Wall Street and Crypto Twitter with his bold forecast: Bitcoin could surge to $1 million by 2027. He points to the unstoppable flow of capital from hedge funds, global banks, and governments into Bitcoin as the world wakes up to its unmatched store-of-value potential.

OT8 Gary Cardone predicted in a July 2025 interview that Bitcoin would push to $1 million. As Gary Cardone provided the seed money for Cardone Capital and advises Grant, it seems likely that Gary had some degree of influence in Grant Cardone’s new and risky multifamily-bitcoin strategy.

Grant Cardone has heavily invested in multifamily in Florida and other sun belt states where multifamily is down due to overbuilding during the pandemic-era construction boom. Rents are sideways or down as are new housing starts in multifamily. Grant Cardone may have sailed into a perfect storm in which Bitcoin is crashing and multifamily rents will stay even or decline >5%. This would be compounded by all the cheap loan debt that came due and Cardone had to refi. Cardone once stated in a video that his loans are 10-year interest only or variable rate loans.

Polymarket saw an enormous amount of betting on BTC hitting $65,000, or lower, in February 2026:

Cardone’s Debt Wall Is Still There

The Bitcoin crash does not make Cardone’s underlying problems go away. It makes them worse.

As we calculated in 2020 — and as we confirmed in our February 1 analysis — Cardone’s balloon payments on his interest-only loans are arriving now. In 2026, Cardone’s annual principal and interest payments were projected to reach $316.2 million. That is $26.3 million per month.

His Reg A fundraising from non-accredited investors has collapsed by 65-81%. His REIT is losing millions. His Non-Accredited Fund posted a net loss of $1.3 million in H1 2025 while distributing $1.2 million to investors — paying distributions out of investor capital, not investment returns.

Cardone pivoted to Bitcoin because his traditional investor base was tapped out. Now his Bitcoin holdings are crashing. And his real estate portfolio is still bleeding cash.

What Happens Next

We do not know where Bitcoin’s price will bottom. Stifel says $38,000 is possible. Citi analysts say $70,000 is the critical level — the pre-election price — and a break below that opens the door to further losses.

What we do know is this: Grant Cardone told his followers that he was “Nostradamus” — that he could predict the future. The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals found that Cardone likely did not believe his own 15% return projections. The SEC told him to remove those projections from his offering materials.

Now Cardone is promoting 35% annual returns from Bitcoin-real estate hybrids — while Bitcoin crashes 40% in four months. The pattern is consistent. The hype never matches the reality. And the investors are always the ones left holding the bag.

Grant Cardone’s OT VIII powers have failed to save his crypto bet. Perhaps he should ask the Church of Scientology for a refund on his Bridge to Total Freedom. Based on the performance of his investment funds, he clearly did not get what he paid for.

We will continue to monitor Cardone Capital’s SEC filings and the Bitcoin market. As always, we recommend that anyone considering an investment in any Cardone fund read the actual SEC disclosures rather than watching Grant Cardone’s social media videos. The legal fine print tells a very different story than the Instagram hype. Stay tuned.